2014 Bill James Projections – Clay Buchholz

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2011 projection: 13-9, 29 starts, 193 IP, 3.54 ERA, 74 BB, 168 SO

2011: 6-3, 14 starts, 82.2 IP, 3.48 ERA, 31 BB, 60 SO2012 projection: 13-8, 30 starts, 191 IP, 3.53 ERA, 73 BB, 162 SO2012: 11-8, 29 starts, 189.1 IP, 4.56 ERA, 64 BB, 129 SO2013 projection: 12-11, 30 starts, 205 IP, 3.56 ERA,  72 BB, 163 SO
2013: 12-1, 16 starts, 108.1 IP, 1.74 ERA, 36 BB, 96 SO
2014 projection: 12-9, 29 starts, 190 IP, 3.46 ERA, 64 BB, 153 SO

Clay Buchholz’s biggest enemy in his career has been his own body. It seems like he’s constantly fighting to stay healthy and on the field – and when he does, the results are fantastic.

In the incredible afterglow of the 2013 season, it’s easy to let clay Buchholz’s first half dominance slip under the radar, but in the early part of the season he was absolutely filthy. Indeed, Buchholz was so good that he was accused of cheating. 

Given the time Buchholz missed, it’s difficult to know whether Bill James and his team underestimated him in their projections, but it seems unlikely that he would have lost an additional ten games – with no extra wins – had he stayed healthy.

In that vein, I think Buchholz will outdo James’ 2014 projections – assuming he manages to stay on the mound.

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